Promise tracker
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Promise tracker
What robotics companies said would happen by a date, and what did. Each promise links to the company’s own words; each outcome links to a source.
- Start alpha tests of its humanoid in homes in 2025.
Figure AI · Said 27 Feb 2025: “this year”
No proof
- 1,000 sixth-generation Apollo Go robotaxis in Wuhan in 2024.
Baidu Apollo Go · Said 17 May 2024: “By 2024”
No proof
- Drone delivery from Walmart Supercenters in Atlanta, Charlotte, Houston, Orlando and Tampa within a year (100 more stores).
Wing · Said 5 Jun 2025: “By this time next year”
No proof
- Optimus Gen 3 reveal around mid-2026.
Tesla · Said 22 Apr 2026: “probably middle of this year”
Not done
- Driverless trucks with no partner-requested observer starting in Q2 2026.
Aurora Innovation · Said 11 Feb 2026: “in the second quarter of 2026”
Done late
- Unveil Optimus Gen 3 in Q1 2026.
Tesla · Said 28 Jan 2026: “In Q1 of this year”
Date moved
- About 10,000 Optimus robots built in 2025.
Tesla · Said 29 Jan 2025: “this year”
Not done
- Robotaxi rides with no one in the car in Austin in June 2025.
Tesla · Said 29 Jan 2025: “in Austin in June”
Done late
- Open to riders in Miami in 2026.
Waymo · Said 5 Dec 2024: “in 2026”
Done on time
- Tens of driverless trucks by the end of 2025.
Aurora Innovation · Said 30 Oct 2024: “by the end of 2025”
Not done
- 1,000 robotaxis in its fleet by the end of 2025.
Pony.ai · Said 12 Aug 2025: “year-end”
Done on time
- 500 full-size humanoid robots delivered in 2025.
UBTech Robotics · Said 17 Nov 2025: “within the year”
Done on time
- Capacity to build 5,000 industrial humanoid robots a year by 2026.
UBTech Robotics · Said 17 Nov 2025: “by 2026”
Done on time
- Autonomous ride-hailing for about half the US population by the end of 2025.
Tesla · Said 23 Jul 2025: “by the end of the year”
Not done
- 2,000 delivery robots deployed by the end of 2025.
Serve Robotics · Said 6 Oct 2025: “by the end of 2025”
Done on time
- Public riders in San Francisco in 2025.
Zoox · Said 20 May 2025: “later this year”
Done on time
- Public riders in Las Vegas in 2025.
Zoox · Said 20 May 2025: “later this year”
Done on time
- First public rides in 2024.
Zoox · Said 13 Mar 2024: “later this year”
Done late
- Public rides on the Uber app in Atlanta in early 2025.
Waymo · Said 13 Sept 2024: “early 2025”
Done late
- Driverless trucks in commercial service by April 2025.
Aurora Innovation · Said 30 Oct 2024: “April 2025”
Done on time
- Rides on the Uber app in Austin in early 2025.
Waymo · Said 13 Sept 2024: “beginning in early 2025”
Done on time
How it works: a promise is in only when the company said it on the record, with a date. “No proof” means no public source shows it happened; it is not the same as “Not done”. Something wrong? Send a correction with a source.